September ’23 Pioneer Metagame Update
Looking at how the Pioneer format shook out on MTGO & in Paper via MTGGoldfish Tournament Results.
I began looking at the Pioneer metagame last month with a quick run down of all the MTGO Preliminary, Challenge, and Showcase events. The analysis was based on David Ernenwein’s Modern Metagame Update(s) that break down the format by Popularity and Strength in different ways.
What this analysis looks to do is give some insight into how the Pioneer format is shaping up on a monthly basis, allowing readers to see what decks have gotten stronger, weaker, more popular, or have started to fade away. When looking at these results, remember that sample size is important and that this does not look to show the best deck(s). What you can walk away with from this analysis includes ideas of how your current deck positioned, what decks you may encounter at an event, and what decks are gaining traction in the format as a whole.
Breakdown of Analysis
What Events get counted?
For the Online tournament portion of the analysis, all MTGO Preliminary, Challenge, and Showcase events are counted. The reason Leagues are not included is because the results for Leagues are curated lists, only showcase 5–0 decks, and do not report all lists that achieve the perfect record.
For the Paper tournament portion of the analysis, all Paper events that I find on MTGGoldfish’s Tournament Search. This results in haivng lower paper numbers than Online numbers for the time being, and I am looking for sources with more Paper results reported. The RCQ Season changing from Pioneer to Modern may also affect the number of Paper events being reported, as most LGS level events are not worth tracking on larger sites (and would be excluded the way Leagues are for MTGO).
Defining Popularity
The end resulting decks need to be present enough in order to be above the average of decks producing results for the month. This eliminates “flash-in-the-pan” decks that win a Prelim or RCQ and then fade into obscurity. For September, there were 421 placing decks Online (avg of 5.4) and 458 decks in Paper (avg of 5.9). 266 of these Paper decks were gathered from the LCQ Lille on September 30th.
A deck’s popularity is pretty straight forward — however many decks show up in the results from that archetype is the total number of decks played that month. In order to break the decks into Tiers, we distribute the decks across a normal curve. To create our Tiers, we break out some High School Math and look at the Standard Deviation of decks. Decks within 1 Standard Deviation of the Mean are considered “Tier 3” decks — these decks are close to the average for being ranked, and may be where the “up-and-coming” decks fall in popularity. Decks within 2 Standard Deviations of the Mean are considered “Tier 2” decks — these decks are your commonplace decks you will most likely see when playing in a Tournament. Decks over the 2 Standard Deviation threshold are considered “Tier 1” decks — these are the most popular, the most likely to be played in multiple numbers if you went to a Tournament.
Defining Power
The way a deck’s Power is defined is based on the number of Points it receives that month. These Points vary based on the Event, and if they are Online or in Paper.
Once a deck’s Points have been determined, the same processes that distributes the Total Decks Played is repeated for Total Points Earned. Using our Standard Deviation math, decks within 1 Standard Deviation of the Mean are considered “Tier 3” decks — these decks have either put up inconsistent results, or perhaps a handful of decent results and then disappeared. Decks within 2 Standard Deviations of the Mean are considered “Tier 2” decks — these decks are “above average” in their power level(s), and can be considered strong contenders within the Meta that may also prey on specific top tier decks. ecks over the 2 Standard Deviation threshold are considered “Tier 1” decks — these are the best placing, the most likely to perform well at Events in multiple numbers.
Tracking Points
For Online Events, points are awarded based on Event type and size. Preliminary Events award points based on record, with a 4–0 record earning 3 Points, a 3–1 earning 2 Points, and a 2–1 earning 1 Point for the deck. Challenge Events award points based on the deck’s finish in the tournament, with Top 8 earning 3 Points, Top 16 earning 2 Points, and Top 32 earning 1 Point. Showcase Events are similar to Challenge Events, but have an additional point added on to their placement due to the prestige, awarding 4–3–2 Points based on placement.
For Paper Events, the points are awarded based on Event size and wins. Due to lower Paper numbers and an inconsistent format between reported events (Single elimination, full on RCQ events, 1k and 2k Events, etc) I’ve normalized the scoring system to make all events as equal as possible. For Events that are 32 decks or smaller, 0.5 Points per win is awarded. This increases to 1 Point per win for events between 33 and 128 decks, and 1.5 Points per win for events between 129 and 512 decks. Events that are prestigious enough to have more than 512 decks (such as PTs) award 2 Points per win, but are extremely rare.
The method for Paper Events may be adjusted to be attendance-based-only if I find more Events to count, since this current system would skew the Points heavily in favor of Paper decks.
Similarly to Popularity, Power has a baseline for ranking as well. For September, there were 787 points awarded to placing decks Online (avg of 10.1) and 1,718 points awarded to decks in Paper (avg of 22.0). Again, 266 of these Paper decks were gathered from the LCQ Lille on September 30th.
Popularity Analysis — Online Events
According to the MTGO tracking, Rakdos Midrange took back over the “most popular deck” slot in Pioneer from Mono Green Devotion — but only by 9 decks! The small resurgance of Rakdos can most likely be attritbuted to the “counter-Green” decks rising in poularity, as Rakdos historically has a decent match up against them.
Mono Green Devotion is still the 2nd most popular deck, but may be lower because of the uptick in other decks on this list. Izzet Phoenix as the 3rd most popular deck, as well as Azorious Spirits and Mono W Humans all match up decently against the Karn-Nyxthos combo deck. The 4th most popular deck Lotus Field Combo is also a deck that can race Green to a game’s ending.
Decks that are little surprising and/or new to see on this list are Dimir Control with 14 placing decks, Mono Black Midrange (different than Waste Note) with 9 placing decks, and the rising-in-play-rate Boros Heroic with 16 placing decks. Of these decks, Boros Heroic was the best performing points-wise.
Power Analysis — Online Events
Matching the Popularity Analysis, Rakdos Midrange put up the most Points in MTGO events in September as well. Although the most popular decks are reflected in the Power Analysis as well, it’s important to note the order in which the Power is flipped from the Popularity Analysis following Rakdos in the 1st slot.
Izzet Phoenix is 2nd on the Power Rankings, leaping over Mono G Devotion with 4 more points and 5 less decks placing. Of all the deck on the Power Ranking, Phoenix also has the 3rd highest Points-per-Deck ratio at 2.07, which is only below Azorius Control and Boros Pia, the latter of the two not having enough decks to break into the Popularity Analysis.
Dropping in both Popularity and Power, but staying consistent in it’s placing is Rakdos Sacrifice. Although it’s relative deck in Rakdos Midrange is doing fine, Sacrifice suffers from other top match ups being a tad unfavored for them. Although it preys on Azorius Spirits and Mono W Humans, it does not line up as well into Izzet Phoenix, so the jump in bird-based decks can account for a 5th place ranking in Popularity and Power for Sac.
Decks that are a little surprising and/or new to see on this list are Boros Heroic (again) with 31 total Points (1.94 per deck), and Azorius Lotus Field with 16 total Points (2.00 per deck). Although Azorios Control is also a well-performing deck when it places, the Lotus Field version has been popping up more and more online, having one more deck played but one less Point in September.
Popularity Analysis — Paper Events
Different from the Online rankings, Mono G Devotion was the most played deck in Paper events for September with 56 total decks. It has 11 more decks played than Rakdos Midrange in 2nd place with 45.
Surprisingly, Mono W Humans was the 3rd most popular deck in Paper, having 38 decks compared to Izzet Phoenix and Azorious Spirits with 36 and 30 total decks respectively. The lower price point to Humans in Paper may be attributing to having more decks played in Paper, alongside a good Mono G match up. Azorius Control also had more representation in Paper, with 19 total decks played in September.
Decks that are a little surprising to see are Izzet Creativity with 12 total decks played — as the deck has all but disappeared online. Atarka Red also had more popularity in Paper, with 12 total decks, taking over the most played Gruul-based deck from Gruul Boats with 10 total decks.
Since September was the first time I began tracking Paper events, I do not have the data to compared Month-over-Month analysis. Next month this should be more fleshed out!
Power Analysis — Paper Events
Different from the Popularity rankings, Rakdos Midrange and Mono G Devotion have swapped places in the Points Analysis, with Rakdos having the 2nd highest Points-per-Deck ratio of all decks on the ranking at 4.47. Mono W Humans, Izzet Phoenix, and Rakdos Sacrifice make up the other Top 5 decks in this ranking. Surprisingly, Azorius Spirits is just barely out of the top 5 with 93 total Points, and a 2.88 Points-per-Deck ratio in Paper events for September.
Boros Heroic is the new deck on the block and putting up good numbers in September, almost tying Spirits with 91 total Points and boasting the highest Points-per-Deck ratio with a 6.18. Azorius Control is also a more powerful deck in Paper, while Lotus Combo ranks at a lower 73 total Points. Gruul Boats is a little surprising to see, rocking 62 total Points and an impressive 5.95 Points-per-Deck ratio in Paper.
Because the Paper events have larger points awarded to them, the Tiers skew a little higher — there are many more decks in Tier 1 Points for Paper than there are online — something I might adjust next month.
Tier Analysis — Combined Events
The method we use to come up with a “Final Tier result” for our decks is a twist on the Composite Ranking method in ABC Analysis. Instead an additive composite ranking, here we are multiplying the Tiers from Online Popularity, Online Power, Paper Popularity, and Paper Power and creating a composite average of those Tiers to give us our final results. Which looks like this:
Breaking down the decks into Letter Grades gives a better picture than just looking at a number would for most people. In doing this, we can see that there are 3 “S Tier” decks in the format, 3 “A Tier” decks in Pioneer, and multiple “B Tier” formats that can be played. The “C Tier” decks are more fringe or up-and-coming, and probably wouldn’t be where you want to start when trying to compete at an RCQ-type event as they are just not strong enough to win an entire event.
The S Tier Decks
Gone but not forgotten, Izzet Phoenix rises from the ashes of a prolong sleep in the Pioneer format to again became an S Tier deck. Taking 1st in 3 Preliminaries alongside a slew of good placing results both Online and in Paper have put Phoenix back on the map. An okay-ish (50/50) match up into Mono Green Devotion, Phoenix preys on the decks that made Rakdos Sacrifice a good choice not too long ago while also lining up well against Mayhem Devil & friends. Phoenix isn’t without weaknesses though, as Rakdos Midrange is historically a rough match up for the deck.
A mainstay at the top of the format, Mono Green took a bit of a hit this month but still retains it’s S Tier status. Still rocking 50% or better match ups against a majority of the decks in the format, Mono Green has only recently been challenged by the uptick in Mono W Humans and Azorius Spirits as direct challenges to the deck itself. According to MTGDecks, Mono G is at a 39% and 37% winr ate respectively against those decks, which are single (double?) handedly keeping it in check. The rise of Boros Heroic also gives Mono G a deck it needs to try racing, or it loses.
Seeing an even larger uptick in play during September after a quieter Summer, Rakdos Midrange is rising back in the ranks alongside Izzet Phoenix to stay S Tier for September. With winning match ups against Mono W humans, Azorius Control and Spirits, and most importantly the variations of Boros decks — Rakdos has a spot at the top until decks like Enigmatic Fires or Bring to Light see an uptick in play.
The A Tier Decks
Falling down a bit, although still at the A+ side of A Tier, Rakdos Sacrifice continues to be a grindy deck that can pull wins out of seemingly nowhere given a Mayhem Devil and a dream. Unfortunately for Sac, MTGDecks says it has a 34% Win Rate against Izzet Phoenix, which explains why these two decks have seemingly swapped places in September.
The “go-to-Anti-Green” deck stumbled a little in September, although it’s spot on the Tier list is pretty much the same being a solid A Tier deck. What Azorius Spirits has against it currently is the 39% win rate against Mono W and the 21% win rate against Boros Heroic. Still though, the deck is a perfect choice if you expect any number of Mono Green, Lotus Field Combo, or Control decks.
Still one of the best combo decks in the format, the influx of aggressive decks has made Lotus Field a harder choice to go with over Mono Green Devotion. Without the backup plan of “big beefy things to throw in the way,” Lotus Field decks are torn between optimizing their combo routes with Chandra, Beacon of Hope plus Discontinuity — or cutting some combo cards for maindeck answers to aggro such as Sunfall. If you anticipate Mono W Humans, Spirits, or Heroic at your next event, keep the Lotus Fields in the binder for now.
The B Tier Decks
There are a lot of decks in B tier, so I am only going to pick a few of them to talk about based on trends in the data.
By now everyone has heard of Boros Heroic and what Monstrous Rage has done for the new flavor of Boros deck for September. Although not entirely new, Heroic had life breathed back into it with Wilds of Eldraine and is in a nice spot of the metagame where it’s both fast and resilient enough to match up against most of the format staples, save for a solid Rakdos or Control draw. The deck does require a bit of thinking and Math, and can be looked at in a similar way that old Modern Infect decks were.
The newest flavor of Control out there, going for Discontinuity on turn 3 to “stifle” your Lotus Field trigger and giving you 6 mana on turn 4 to play whatever Control haymaker you want matches up great when a lot of the aggro decks are trying to beat a turn 4–6 sweeper. Now they have to contend with a 6 mana spell like Farewell slamming down on Turn 4 — which is hard to recover from. Although even a “fast” control deck has it’s downsides, taking out some interaction for speed means it can struggle against the Combo version of Lotus Field, and playing large spells early still gets hurt by a Thalia out of Mono W Humans.
All different flavors of Bring to Light have been popping back up — Niv to Light, Omnath to Light, Elementals, etc. All of these soup-style decks took a back seat to the proactive combo decks for a long time because playing a “durdle” style of Magic was not what Pioneer was looking to do. However, now that Izzet Phoenix and Rakdos Midrange are back en masse — the stock in Omnath and friends has gone up. Being able to out-Midrange these decks in a fair game by just going bigger or better than they are is powerful — but can be tempo’d out by decks like Spirits or beaten faster than they can set up by Lotus Field Combo.
Interesting Decks in September
With 8 Total Decks across Paper and Online play in September - but only 7 Points between the two — Waste Not has generated a lot of buzz recently. This archetype is a huge pet deck of mine, so I’m keeping a close eye on it. Beseech the Mirror and Hopeless Nightmare have added an extra angle of attack to the deck, being able to run “extra copies” of Sheoldred, the Apocalyse and key spells like the new Rankle’s Prank.
Another deck that benefits from Beseech the Mirror, Orzhov Pact only put up 2 decks, earning 4 Points in September Online and in Paper. While some decks have ebbed-and-flowed with released, a Doom Foretold-plus-Demonic Pact deck hasn’t put up any meaningful results for a while. Stax-type strategies are a fan “favorite” (both hated by many, and beloved by some) this deck doesn’t look to do enough to race the aggro decks of the format — but might be a fun FNM deck.
Decks and their Win Rates
I put together a visualization you can play around with that allows you to look at specific stats for decks, sorted by their Win Rate. It’s separated by Online or Paper for more accurate analysis, and can be filtered to a minimum amount of decks played to show up on the chart. Play around with it all you want, and it will update whenever I update my database!
In future articles, I may go more in-depth in win rates — however I do not have the head-to-head match ups recorded myself to do the full analysis on which decks performed well against specific archetypes for the month (I’ve sourced all my points made above in these area to other site’s data collection).
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