2022 LCS Summer Ratings Update — Rollout the Analysis

With just over a third of the split behind us in the LCS, it’s time to take a look back at the Summer Split Power Rankings from my previous article and see how they are comparing to the current rankings!

For those that did not read the last analysis — the TL;DR was that we used the Colley Matrix to achieve ratings (CMR) from 2022 LCS Spring using strength-of-schedule, side selection, etc to give us a better version of Win Rate (WIN%) and ranked the teams going into Summer using that rating!

2022 Summer Colley Matrix Ratings

Using the numbers from 2022 Spring -> Present, here’s how the Summer looks right now — using the normal WIN% (Actual Standings), updating teams Colley Ratings, and showing the difference between the two and the difference in rankings.

Teams are sorted by LCS Summer Standings

Looking at how teams are placed in the standings, CLG is the team that benefits most when you look at WIN% over the CMR — for good reason! A strong early season start for CLG gave them a big boost in the standings — and it also jumped their CMR the 2nd largest at+10.18pp. Because they were ranked so low at Spring’s end, the CMR still has them in 6th place — a few PP lower than FLY in 5th — and firmly in Summer Playoffs for now.

Cloud9 is the opposite of CLG, as they are ranked 6th in the standings — but the CMR still has them in 4th place. One thing the Spring Analysis could not predict was how roster changes would change a team’s performance, and in C9’s case they had to play with not just a new roster, but substitutes for the first few games. Although these are unfortunate circumstances, it still hurts them in the long run as they fall -11.42pp in CMR vs WIN% and fall to 6th in Summer Standings for now. End of Spring CMR alluded to a C9 downturn — but the new. intended roster could stabilize the team.

Evil Geniuses continue their upward trajectory with the highest CMR vs WIN% boost at +11.79pp and sole possession of first in the Summer Standings. Likewise, Team Liquid and FlyQuest have recovered a bit and get a boost in their standing vs the CMR. Dignitas however, is the team with the largest downturn between their actual standings and their estimated CMR. In my Summer Power Rankings, DIG was the team my ratings disagreed the most with vs The Dive analysts — but it looks like they knew more than the numbers did! Right now DIG is -13.79pp between their Standings and their CMR, which means the rating thinks they are still much better than their current standing reflects. But watching DIG games play out, there needs to be some work done before they hope for Playoffs (which right now, they barely get in to).

My Power Rankings vs Summer Split (so far)

Teams listed in the CMR Power Ranking order vs their placing in actual Summer Split Standings

Since our Power Rankings listed teams 1–10 with no repeats, I mimicked that ranking structure even though teams are tied for standings in Summer right now. For example, TL and Golden Guardians are both tied for 2nd and 6th respectively — so in theory they are +1 ranking from the Power Ranking spots — but currently fall in 3rd and 7th (due to alphabetical ordering).

The first three weeks have not been the kindest to the Power Rankings we came up with before the Split started. DIG was the highest “overrated” team we had going into the Split (being ranked T-8th vs our predicted 5th). C9 is also struggling and are ranked T-6th vs the 4th we had them ranked in. On the positive side, FLY are a little underrated in our pre-Split rankings (6th vs T-4th, labeled as 5th here). CLG as expected, are the biggest surprise of Summer jumping into a T-4th spot from our predicted 8th place.

Team Analysis

We could just end it there and stop at the check in for the Colley Matrix Ratings — but that wouldn’t be fun, now would it? Instead, let’s take a little time to focus on teams that the CMR missed the mark on so far, and what makes them tick!

Counter Logic Gaming

Starting with the biggest surprise of the Summer Split — CLG started off hot before having a cool down in Week 3. A lot of their success comes from a strong early game — CLG has the highest First Herald Rate (FH%) and tie for highest First Blood Rate (FB%) in the LCS. The catalyst for their early game? Their Jungler Contractz:

Top 10 FB Participation in the LCS (All Roles)

With the highest First Blood Participation (FBP) in the LCS, Contractz gets CLG on the board early. This translates to early game heralds, and the most Plates per Game (Plates/G) with 5.4 plates. Although they get ahead early, they do not stay ahead all the time:

LCS Team GD@15 — CLG Highlighted

With only an average Gold Difference at 15 (GD@15) of +77, CLG’s early game advantages only amount to the 7th highest GD@15 in the LCS.

CLG CSD@15 by Player

CLG’s compositions may have some different picks (such as Seraphine and Senna compositions) that alter Luger’s CS Differental (CSD) overall, but the weakness in laning is something teams have already begun to attack.

CLG Earned Gold Share by Player

CLG’s compositions also lead to a different distribution of gold. While Dhokla has been impressive on his return to the LCS stage, many CLG compositions give him more resources than other top laners in the league — with only Fudge and Bwipo earning more.

Overall, CLG could benefit from a little more stability in the mid and bot lanes early game, allowing Palafox and Luger to come out ahead or even. This would translate to a larger GD in the mid game, which could let their compositions close games more securely.

Cloud9

One of the more interesting teams to look at, C9’s stats will be a little different because of the various versions of the roster that have played in so few games played. But holistically, C9 identifies as and plays like a “Skill Check” team.

LCS Team Stats — C9 Highlighted
LCS Team Stats — C9 Highlighted

What we mean by that is C9 has very poor team play metrics — first and average objectives and game pacing metrics are all bottom half of the LCS. In fact, C9 only ranks top half of the LCS in 3 team categories — Plates/G, GD@15, GOLD@15, and Team Deaths per Game (Team D/G). Given the roster is newer, those stats should be low and exploitable areas for opponents.

What C9 does excel in though, are lane advantages — specifically in Top Lane

Top 10 GD@15 in the LCS (All Roles)

Fudge has the 2nd highest GD@15 in the LCS — while he and Blaber both T-6th in FBP as well. Unlike a team such as CLG however, C9’s top side domination takes off between 10 and 15 minutes, which is often too late for First Herald (where they rank tied for last at 28.6%).

C9 Champion Picks

C9’s draft phase could also be a place of power (or weakness) to focus on. The team drafts a lot of scaling picks in the bot lane, and currently accounts for 50.0% of all LCS Lulu picks.

Overall, C9 need to take away some of the focus from the Top Lane and spread it out on the map. Although they may have been playing this way due to their roster issues, it’s time to adjust. If they are not going to head top side before Herald is taken, they should be prioritizing Dragons and giving Jensen or Berserker advantages (pending on the picks — Jensen if they run Senna, Berserker if they run Zeri or Jinx).

Dignitas

The team that fell down the furthest compared to our CMR standings has a few issues they need to work out — starting with turning early game objectives into actual early game leads.

LCS Team GD@15 — DIG Highlighted

DIG have the 2nd worst GD@15 in the LCS, but it isn’t because they lose out on early game objectives. DIG have the highest FD% in the LCS at 71.4% and are T-2nd for First Turret Rate (FT%) at 71.4%. What happens to the early leads is a bit of a mystery, they rank 6th in DRAKE% with 47.1% — but 9th in Dragons per Game at 2.14, and 8th in Plates/G at 2.7.

DIG FBP by Player
LCS Jungler XPD@10 Rankings

DIG is reliant on River to get on the board in the early game, whether it is the First Drake or the First Blood of the game. This reliance on River however, creates a deficit in experience in the early game. Although he recovers to rank 5th in Experience Differential at 15 (XPD@15) with +24 (basically even) the damage is done as DIG can not progress in their lanes.

DIG DMG% by Player
DIG Earned GOLD% by Player

The other worrying trend for DIG is that a large portion of their game plan falls to Blue. Although their FD% is high, nothing else about the Bot Lane goes in DIG’s favor. Neo is unable to secure resources from the team, and therefore is unable to output damage that his role usually supplies. Neo ranks dead last (even below K1ng) for Bot Laners in DMG% — which sets off alarms when he is playing Lucian, Senna, Jinx, Kai’Sa and Zeri.

Overall, DIG need a lot of help — and so does River! Their lanes need to do something to give him priority to make his plays safely and securely, instead of sacrificing his own early game to do so. If DIG can get one lane ahead early (preferably, Mid Lane) this gives them an avenue to take 2nd and 3rd Drake much easier.

If you enjoyed this analysis, consider following me here on Medium to be updated on my latest posts! You can also tune in to my Twitter account or my Ko-Fi account for the most up-to-date on what I’m doing, and check out my Tableau Public Profile to enjoy consistently updated LoL Esports visualizations for free!

--

--

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Thomas Searfoss

Thomas Searfoss

Creating & telling stats-informed stories in Esports for a decade.